USA
The hosts are strong favourites and the numbers support that view. USA took control of Group D early, opening with a 4-1 win over Paraguay, their highest-scoring match in World Cup history, before following up with a composed 2-0 victory over Australia.
That second performance was the more complete of the two. USA controlled possession, managed the tempo and restricted Australia to just 0.35 xG. It was a performance built on structure rather than chaos, and it confirmed the progress Pochettino has made with this side.
The final group match against Turkey needs context. USA had already qualified and Pochettino made nine changes to his starting line-up. They led inside three minutes through Auston Trusty, but Turkey fought back to win 3-2, with Kaan Ayhan scoring the winner in stoppage time. The defeat did not affect USA’s group position, but it did bring questions around momentum.
Pochettino pushed back strongly after the match. “At the moment, no one congratulated us for finishing first in a very difficult group,” he said. “I think we are a much better team now than before.” He was equally clear when asked whether the defeat had damaged confidence, pointing out that the objective had been to finish first. USA did that, and they should have Christian Pulisic back closer to full sharpness after his second-half return from a calf injury.
Injuries & Team News
Mauricio Pochettino is expected to return to a full strength side here after heavily rotating against Turkiye with only Ricardo Pepi and Weston McKennie retaining their places in the eleven from the Australia win.
Pepi is now expected to drop out again, though, with so-called ‘Captain America’ Christian Pulisic recovering from a calf injury and coming off the bench, playing well, against the Turks.
Cristian Roldan missed out on the squad due to injury, while defensive duo Mark McKenzie and Auston Trusty both also face late fitness tests.
Form
| Last Match | Last 6 Matches |
|---|---|
| 2-3 Turkey | L W L W W L |
Predicted Line-Up
Predicted XI (4-2-3-1):
Freese; Freeman, Richards, Ream, A. Robinson; Adams, Tillman; Dest, McKennie, Pulisic; Balogun
Bosnia
Bosnia’s route has been far less controlled. Sergej Barbarez’s side drew with Canada, were beaten 4-1 by Switzerland, then sealed qualification with a 3-1 win over Qatar in Seattle. That result made history, and the emotion around it was clear. Edin Dzeko made his 150th international appearance, Kerim Alajbegovic scored a brilliant long-range opener at 18 years old, and Ermin Mahmic came off the bench to settle the game late on.
The issue is the underlying data. Bosnia were not convincing across the group stage. Even the 3-1 win over Qatar came in a match where the xG was almost level, with Bosnia producing 0.68 against Qatar’s 0.77. Their draw with Canada included just 0.02 open-play xG, with most of their threat coming from set pieces. Switzerland cut through them too easily, and USA have the pace and movement to ask similar questions.
Barbarez was understandably defiant afterwards, writing that Bosnia had made the nation happier and prouder than ever. He is right. This is a huge moment for Bosnian football. The problem is that the tactical challenge now becomes far tougher. USA are better organised than Qatar, more athletic than Canada and far more ruthless in transition than Bosnia have faced outside the Switzerland defeat.
Injuries & Team News
Having completed a move from Salzburg to Bayer Leverkusen this summer, Sergej Barbarez left wonderkid Kerim Alajbegovic out against Canada but he started the next two, scoring a screamer against Qatar, and is again expected to be trusted in the eleven.
Tarek Muharemovic is expected to come back into the eleven after being unavailable to face Qatar due to suspension. The Bosnians may revert to a three-at-the-back system after playing a flexible 4-4-2 shape in the group stages. Amar Dedic is a slight doubt due to a thigh injury.
Form
| Last Match | Last 6 Matches |
|---|---|
| 3-1 vs Qatar | W D D D L W |
Predicted Line-Up
Predicted XI (3-4-1-2):
Vasilj; Muharemovic, Katic, Kolasinac; Bajraktarevic, Tahirovic, Sunjic, Dedic; Alajbegovic; Dzeko, Demirovic
Betting Odds
| Team | Odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| USA Win | 2/5 – (1.40) | Grand Ivy |
| Draw | 4/1 – (5.00) | Dream Vegas |
| Bosnia Win | 7/1 – (8.00) | 247Bet |
Prediction
USA 2-0 Bosnia
USA have been brilliant in this home world cup and we should not read anything into the loss to Turkey as they made plenty of changes. Bosnia have been stubborn opposition for all the teams they have faced but this might just be a task to far for them.